Florida Prices: Miami Gains, Tampa Declines

Foreign buyers considering a Florida purchase face sharply different price trends depending on the market: Miami is appreciating while Tampa remains under pressure. Realtor.com reported that 18 of 19 Florida markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors posted gains in median existing-home prices in the latest quarterly data, with Tallahassee flat.

Miami leads Florida’s quarterly recovery

The NAR-based quarterly figures put Miami’s price growth at 3.3%, nearly twice the national average, while Tallahassee recorded 0% growth. Florida was not alone in strengthening: home prices rose in 78% of American metropolitan areas during the summer, compared with 80% in spring. The share of metros recording double-digit increases fell to 4% from 5% in the second quarter.

Realtor.com identified Florida’s luxury segment as a major support for the state’s performance. Sales of homes priced above $1 million increased nearly 10% year over year in August. PulteGroup also reported an uptick in new orders in August 2025 compared with previous years, although the market was then experiencing slower sales and falling prices across Florida.

Key figure	Reported value
Florida markets tracked by NAR	19
Florida markets with median-price gains	18
Miami quarterly price growth	3.3%
Miami annual Case-Shiller change	4.24%
Tampa annual Case-Shiller change	-0.39%
U.S. National Home Price Index change	2.09%
Typical monthly mortgage payment	$2,251
Luxury sales above $1 million	Nearly 10% year over year

Case-Shiller shows a wider Miami-Tampa gap

A separate monthly dataset tells a more detailed story for the two Florida metros included in the Case-Shiller index. Momentum Research reported that Miami prices rose 4.24% over the 12 months ending in August 2026, while Tampa prices fell 0.39%. The findings were published on October 27, 2026.

Miami ranked fourth among the 19 reported metros by annual price change, behind Chicago at 6.70%, New York at 6.19% and Cleveland at 4.29%. Tampa ranked fifteenth. Its 0.05-percentage-point gap behind Cleveland meant third and fourth place were separated by a rounding-sized difference.

Both Florida markets improved from July but remained on opposite trajectories. Miami’s annual increase accelerated from 3.53%, while Tampa’s decline narrowed from 0.73%. Before seasonal adjustment, Miami gained 0.17% from July and Tampa fell 0.37%; after adjustment, Miami rose 0.23% and Tampa slipped 0.07%.

At the national level, the Case-Shiller index gained 2.09% annually, up from 1.9% in July. The 20-City Composite rose 2.65%, and the 10-City Composite increased 3.62%. S&P’s Rebecca Kaufman said seasonality continued to weigh on headline monthly results, with adjusted figures providing the better indication of direction.

Inflation separates nominal growth from real growth

August inflation was 3.4%, while the national Case-Shiller index recorded a 2.1% annual gain. S&P said U.S. home prices declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month in August 2026.

The inflation comparison produced different outcomes for the two Florida markets. Miami’s 4.24% nominal increase was above the 3.4% inflation rate, meaning Miami prices also increased in real terms under the simple comparison. Tampa recorded a nominal decline of 0.39%.

Affordability costs are rising alongside prices

NAR’s broader affordability data showed that the median monthly mortgage payment for a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment reached $2,251. That was $48 higher than in the second quarter and $69 higher than a year earlier.

The typical U.S. family spent 24.1% of household income on mortgage payments, compared with 23.9% in spring and 24.5% in summer 2025. For first-time buyers, the NAR starter-home scenario was valued at $368,000, with a monthly mortgage payment of $2,208. Those buyers were spending 36.3% of their income on housing, up from 36% in the previous quarter.

For cross-border readers comparing property decisions, separate Real Estate Abroad guides cover buying property in Spain and flood risk for buyers in Malaga. In the latest Florida data, Miami remained 1.59 percentage points above the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite in August.